Table of Contents

Introduction: The Age of Lethal Empowerment 

PART ONE: THEORY

Chapter 1: Classic Models of Military Innovation: Shaped by the Nuclear Revolution 
Introduction 
The Historical Relationship between War and Technology 
Innovation is Double-Edged 
The Social Nature of Diffusion 
Technology is Not Strategy 
Historical Context Matters 
Opening Pandora’s Box 

Chapter 2: The Arsenal for Anarchy: When and How Violent Individuals and Groups Innovate 
Introduction 
The Historical Relationship between Political Violence and Technology
How Technologies Were Harnessed 
How Lethal Nonstate Actors Innovate 
Everett Rogers’ Theory of Commercial Diffusion Revisited 

PART TWO: HISTORY

Chapter 3: Dynamite and the Birth of Modern Terrorism 
Introduction 
The Advent of Gunpowder 
Early Explosive Violence from Below 
Gunpowder Helps Build the Modern World 
Alfred Nobel’s Vision 
Dynamite Becomes the People’s Weapon 
The Narodnaya Volya and the Killing of the Tsar 
The Skirmishers and Clan na Gael 
The International Anarchist Movement 
Why Dynamite Diffused

Chapter 4: How Dynamite Diffused 
Introduction
Innovation Was Not Driven by the Military 
The Global Production of Dynamite
Growth Despite Danger
Inexorable Downward Pressure on Price
The Stoking of Discontent 
The International Anarchist Convention of 1881 and ‘Propaganda of the Deed’ 
Dynamite Schools and Pamphlets 
Anarchist Newspapers and Periodicals Worldwide 
Mass Market Sensationalism 
Patterns in Numbers of Attacks
How Global Dynamitings Ended 
Nobel’s Remorse 

Chapter 5: The Kalashnikov and the Global Wave of Insurgencies 
Introduction 
The Evolution of Firearms and the Introduction of the Machine Gun 
Kalashnikov’s Invention of the AK-47 
Why the AK-47 Was so Widely Adopted 
A Humble, Yet Disruptive Innovation 

Chapter 6: How the Kalashnikov Diffused 
The Kalashnikov’s Debut and Public Demonstration 
Trading in Kalashnikovs 
The Diffusion of Kalashnikovs
A Proliferation of Factories 
The Revolutionary’s Weapon of Choice
Back to the USA 
The Impact on the Power of States 
Why the Kalashnikov Spread
The Floodgates Opened 
Kalashnikov’s Regret
The Power of Unintended Consequences

PART THREE: CONVERGENCE: WIDESPREAD LETHAL EMPOWERMENT

Chapter 7: Open Innovation of Mobilization: Social Media and Conquering Digital Terrain 
Introduction 
The New Nature of Mobilization 
New Tools for Old Tactics 
New Tools Used in New Ways
Boundless Interactivity 
Mobile Streaming Videos and Live-streaming 
Quality First-Person Filmmaking Technology
Viral Fake News 
End-to-End Encryption 
Hijacking Psychological Tactics
Unintended Consequences Redux 

Chapter 8: Open Innovation of Reach: From AK-47s to Drones, Robots, Smartphones, and 3-D Printing 
Introduction 
Convergent Technologies and Extended Reach 
The Scope of Unmanned Systems 
How Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Extend Private Reach 
Predators, Reapers, Global Hawk: Sustaining Technologies 
The Pattern of State-to-State Proliferation of UAVs 
State-to-Group Proliferation of UAVs: Hezbollah and Hamas 
These Are Not the Drones You’re Looking For 
Terrorist and Insurgent Groups’ Lethal UAV Programs 
Crowd-funded, “Grey Zone,” and Private UAV Intelligence 
Advances in the Works 
Drones as Missiles 
Democratized Precision Strike Capability 
Everyone Manufactures Everything with 3D Printing 
Individual Flying Devices 
Lagging Countermeasures 

Chapter 9: An Army of One Launches Many: Autonomy and Artificial Intelligence
Introduction
A Spectrum of Autonomy
The Perils of Full Artificial Intelligence
The Predictions of Lethal Empowerment Theory
Autonomous Reach
Self-driving Truck Bombs
Hijacking the Internet of Things
Autonomous Swarms
Small Autonomous Killer Robots
Tailored for Terrorism

Conclusion: Strategy in an Age of Lethal Empowerment 
Powerful Economic Incentives for Diffusion
Technological Optimism and a Boom in Tinkering
New Communications Technologies Are Powerful Incentives to Violence
Militaries Are Facing the Innovator’s Dilemma
Disruptive Private Armies: The ISIS Precedent
Responding to the Threat
The Profit Motive for Protections
Regulation Is Not Necessarily Strangulation
Building Up National Security
Strategy in an Age of Lethal Empowerment